We are investment and risk quantitative researchers that go beyond conventional methods
Our main goal is to empower investors to achieve better risk adjusted returns over the long term
Most investors:
have unnecessarily complicated portfolios
underperform the averages. In fact, many don’t survive the markets
are taking more risk than they know
Our Services
What We Do
We offer a consultation service that empowers investors to improve their risk adjusted returns over the long term. Our service is based on:
a unique blend of skills. We’ve observed the market since the dotcom days. We built a solid career coding our way up in the software world. And along the way picked up a knack for spotting patterns and crunching numbers.
risk awareness. We believe that aiming for high returns without some understanding of risk misses the point entirely.
skin in the game. We invest our own capital using the same strategies and tools that we share with clients.
quantitative research and tooling: we empower clients with the research and tools they need for backtesting, performance tracking and strategy development.
What We Don’t Do
We are not registered financial or investment advisors. We don’t have official financial credentials. In fact, nothing on this site constitutes investment advice
We are not macro analysts. Our service is based solely on data and data only. We don’t make forecasts about the direction of the markets.
We are not money managers and we don’t trade on behalf of clients.
We are not stock pickers and we don’t offer stock recommendations.
We are not associated with any banks, insurance companies, brokers or mutual fund companies or other investment advisors.
Who We Work With
Our clients can choose us, and we can choose our clients.
Our service is primarily aimed at DIY investors who are open to using tools like Excel, and are willing to make a trade a few times per year. It is is best suited to individuals who (will eventually) depend on their investments as the primary source of income.
Potential clients will be able to do a performance and risk deep dive and understand their investment and selections better. Or they might just be nervous or curious investors who just need a second opinion.
A potential client will likely be able to simplify his/her portfolio. Or they might just need help in backtesting and simulation, as well as strategy development.
Our Approach
Our investment approach is centered around the following observations:
In no particular order: to win the game, one must first learn to survive. It is very hard to match the average market performance, let alone outperform it. Average market returns are not the same as investors’ returns. Buy and Hold works well in theory but not so much in practice. Risk adjusted returns are much more important. Drawdowns are part of the game. A strategy with relatively shallower and/or shorter drawdowns is superior. Indexing is the most guaranteed way to pick winners and as such most investors should stick to major indices. Cash is the best hedge. Gold does have a place in one’s portfolio (A little known secret about gold: a 50/50 split between stocks (SPY) and gold beats both stocks and gold on a risk adjusted basis most of the time).
How We Invest
We follow a barbell strategy, where the bulk of the portfolio is allocated to a "safe" bucket, while a smaller portion is dedicated to growth - or even hyper-growth assets. What qualifies as a safe bucket? We see it as an asset mix that behaves similarly to short-term bonds. This may include assets like cash, term deposits, GICs, HISAs, gold, select currencies, managed futures, market-neutral funds, and other diversifiers.
For rebalancing, we use a blend of mean reversion algorithms. We use our own customized versions of constant weighting, Lichello AIM, and value averaging.
Additionally, we incorporate simple technical indicators - like the 12-month moving average - to help identify long-term market trends.
What would such a portfolio look like in real life?
For the overall structure of a sample portfolio, see this article which explains how leveraged ETFs can potentially reduce risk. For illustration, consider a sample portfolio allocated with 30% in the NASDAQ-100 index (QQQ) and the remaining 70% evenly split between cash and gold. Rebalancing was performed using value averaging with a modest annual growth target rate of 8%. Over the 20-year period ended May 23, 2025 , the strategy delivered an average annual return of 8.76%, slightly outperforming SPY’s 8.18%, with a beta of just 0.34. It executed 58 trades in total - approximately 2.9 trades per year - and maintained an average cash allocation of 69.20%. The maximum drawdown was just below -20% and lasted 15.41 months during the GFC, compared to SPY’s -56% drawdown lasting 65 months. The worst year for the strategy was a decline of -9.78%, significantly better than SPY’s worst year at -34%. Sharpe was near 1 for the 20 yr period.
The chart below illustrates the kind of detailed analysis clients can expect when reviewing their portfolios. Please note, these are illustrative examples and not investment recommendations.
Note: this backtest was done in Google Sheets and the data was sourced from Google Finance on the weekly timeframe without dividends or interest on cash included!
This chart below is the same backtest but going back 10 years only. It slightly underperforms but on on a risk adjusted basis, it outperforms (see Sharpe, Calmar and alpha)
About the Author
Jamil Hreich, MCS, RWRI
Jamil is an independent investor, trader and quantitative researcher with two decades of real-world market experience and skin in the game. Over the past ten years, he has been focused on quantitative methods to navigate market uncertainty and pursue above-average risk adjusted returns. His thinking is strongly influenced by Nassim Taleb’s school of thought.
From 2003 to 2023, Jamil held senior roles at leading technology firms, including Big Tech, where he built and led teams that delivered large scale and award-winning software products. Most recently at Hopper, he founded and managed the Customer eXperience Product team that is behind Hopper's VIP service and Global Help Center. At Amazon, he managed the team responsible for executing vendor agreements and sales tax reporting for Amazon Selling Partners. At Mitel, he served as software architect and lead backend engineer of MiContact Center Business, designing and developing its skills based routing algorithm, analytics and data acquisition services. More details about his professional background can be found at his LinkedIn profile.
Jamil is an alumnus of the Real World Risk Institute (RWRI), Class of June 2024. He holds a Bachelor of Computer Science (Highest Distinction) from Carleton University, with a minor in Mathematics, and a Master of Computer Science from the University of Ottawa.
Contact Us
Riskfolio’s main office is in Ottawa at 135 Laurier Ave, Ottawa, ON K1P 5J2. Get in touch for a quick chat about what you need and how we can help. All conversations start with a free consultation.